The swelling of the head begins.
Last Friday Digital Music News reported that many researchers lately have challenged Chris Anderson's Long Tail theory. Anderson contends that when attention is brought to a wider collection of titles (music, movies, books) the head (top 20% of sellers usually representing about 80% of sales, a.k.a. "blockbusters") will get smaller while the tail (remainder of the market's total catalog usually representing about 20% of sales) increases. He introduced this theory in 2004 and published The Long Tail: Why The Future of Business Is Selling Less Of More a year later
Number of Multi-Platinum albums certified in 2007: 27
Number of Multi-Platinum albums certified in 2008 as of the first week of November: 49
While that read was fresh in my mind, I decided to check out the current Billboard top selling albums. I check the charts on a semi-regular basis for the sake of curiosity. This week I noticed something different. There appeared to be an increase in the number of gold and platinum symbols (the black circles and triangles that are placed next to the album title on the charts). I was curious to see if maybe there was a new shift in head vs. tail economics. I then proceeded to check out Billboards RIAA certification page and found some surprising data. The webpage shows which albums were certified for reaching 500,000 (Gold), one million (Platinum), and two million plus (Multi-Platinum) sold and at what time the release was certified.
Keep in mind that I am presenting this without specific sales figures. However it's no secret that recorded music sales have dropped about 5-10% year to year since 2001 as it has been widely reported on Digital Music News as well as other music news sites. Therefore it's safe to assume that the overall body of music sales is smaller. If the head has dramatically decreased the last seven years while the tail has shown modest improvements, the head/tail proportion is going to different than it was in 2001. And maybe it has. But as sales decreases beyond 2008, if the number of blockbusters actually grow then one can argue that the head is growing again, thus making the tail smaller.
Here is some data I picked up from the RIAA page.
Number of Gold albums certified in 2007: 79
Number of Gold albums certified in 2008 as of the first week of November: 146
Number of Platinum albums certified in 2007: 47
Number of Platinum albums certified in 2008 as of the first week of November: 63
Number of Gold albums certified in 2008 as of the first week of November: 146
Number of Platinum albums certified in 2007: 47
Number of Platinum albums certified in 2008 as of the first week of November: 63
Number of Multi-Platinum albums certified in 2007: 27
Number of Multi-Platinum albums certified in 2008 as of the first week of November: 49
So far in 2008 the RIAA are handing out far more certifications than in 2007. Considering those current numbers and the fact that 2008 is not over, it's not a unwise bet to say 2008's certifications will double that of 2007.
However, the above figures does not break down the release dates and length of time it took those albums to reach their certifications.
I will let the experts pull that data and slice, dice, and splice it. I will offer one bit of analysis to support that number of blockbusters may be increasing.
Number of albums released in 2007 to reach Gold certification within three months
of release date: 45
Number of albums released in 2008 to reach Gold certification within three months
of release date: 33
Keep in mind that 2008 is not over and I would need until 03/31/09 to
fully calculate this tally. However it looks like 2008 is on its way to beat
2007 in number of albums to reach gold within 3 months of release.
of release date: 45
Number of albums released in 2008 to reach Gold certification within three months
of release date: 33
Keep in mind that 2008 is not over and I would need until 03/31/09 to
fully calculate this tally. However it looks like 2008 is on its way to beat
2007 in number of albums to reach gold within 3 months of release.
I can't really explain any specific reason why the head would be increasing. One theory could be based on the high profile retails deals that classic rock bands like Guns & Roses, The Eagles, and AC/DC have made the last year. Those deals have not only given the head three guranteed platinum sellers but has triggered a heavy interest in catalog sales for these bands.
I will following up on this discovery sometime in the future and will share what I learn.
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Something else to consider Will, GN'R and AC DC that so called exclusive releases this year, via Best Buy or Walmart, other stores such as Zia and Virgin Megastores got those releases by means of import. So they cost more and sold well as well, and DO NOT count in soundscan. But whatever I put my eggs in the music retail basket and will be without a job early next quarter.
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